Deals, data, and pattern recognition.

Thesis pieces, mental models, and the things that connect them. Written from the intersection of capital and culture.

007

Pieces
published

Scroll

Featured

No. 001

Thesis

The Great Data Inversion

Why entertainment's most distressed services companies are its most valuable AI assets. The pharma CRO cycle produced a $45B company. The same architecture exists in gaming. Nobody is building it.

April 2026 · 12 min

Writing

001 Model

Entry Price Explains 40% of Returns. Everything Else Is Noise.

Bain's DealEdge data across 50,000+ PE deals. The three variables that actually predict outcomes.

Mar 2026 · 7 min

002 Thesis

Why Gaming Data Is the Next Epsilon

CuriosityStream went from loss-making to $8.2M EBITDA licensing content to AI labs.

Mar 2026 · 10 min

003 Model

Five Layers of Underwriting No Financial Buyer Can Replicate

The edge isn't capital. It's pattern recognition built over a decade inside the industry.

Apr 2026 · 8 min

004 Thesis

The Disruption Discount Is a Timing Play

60-70% compression, then 18-36 month recovery. The pattern holds across six sectors.

Apr 2026 · 6 min

005 Life

The VFX Cautionary Tale and What Roll-Ups Get Wrong

DNEG raised $250M and failed its IPO. Deluxe went bankrupt. The structural lesson nobody learned.

Feb 2026 · 9 min

006 Life

The Cross-Sector Talent Arbitrage Nobody's Capturing

Mar 2026 · 11 min

007 Life

What the NFL Couldn't See

Mar 2026 · 5 min

"The operators who build during Phase 2 own the category for decades. Every analog confirms it."

From “The Great Data Inversion”

Deals, data, and pattern recognition.

The Great Data Inversion

Get the thesis as it develops.